Image by 14995841 from Pixabay Note from the author: I use the terms stability and instability throughout this article. However, resiliency and fragility, respectively, more accurately describe the phenomena that I’m describing. Centralization creates fragility and decentralization creates resiliency. Please note this as you read the article below which I left in its original form…
Category: market commentary
Image by bridgesward from Pixabay Everyone loves to dunk on the Federal Reserve (Fed). To many, the setters of U.S. monetary policy never get it right. Its stable of Ph.D. economists are always too late, or too slow, or too early, or too fast. Shockingly, many have built prominent careers in peddling this viewpoint. Yet,..
Image by linsenfutter2016 from Pixabay So much for returning to normal. I had hoped that easing COVID restrictions would supercharge economic growth this year. Many affected industries and markets were rebuilding and reopening to a backlog of robust demand. Sure, markets had issues to grapple with: inflation, changing central bank policies, and the return of..
Image by QuakerGirl22 from Pixabay Catching inflection points is the holy grail of trading. It’s what makes investing lore. From shorting the 2005 housing boom or skyrocketing technology stocks in 2000, to classic value investing, taking contrarian positions can create large profits and legendary reputations. While seductive, it’s a difficult way to trade over the..
Image from Pixabay. Gold is lots of things to lots of people. To some, it’s the ultimate store of value and a source of financial freedom. To others, it’s just a shiny rock with an inflated, emotionally-driven price. Gold’s most popularly used to hedge inflation risk; to preserve purchasing power from thieving bureaucrats and central..
Image by ErikaWittlieb from Pixabay I’m truly shocked to watch events unfold in the Chinese investment markets. Throughout the year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) progressively restricted freedoms of its citizens, plummeting share prices for some of the largest companies in the world. While this not-so-naked power struggle between economic and political factions is as..
Image by RoboAdvisor from Pixabay Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing is all the rage these days. Naturally, funds are launching to meet the growing investor demand. However, new company formation cannot keep pace with inflows. Yet, the investible universe is expanding nonetheless. Something funny‘s happening. Nearly every type of company is becoming ESG-compliant without..
Image by StockSnap from Pixabay As I sat down to write this month’s article, just one topic came to mind: inflation. Readers know that I just wrote on this theme. Yet, it remains topical and I have more to exploring to do. I’m specifically interested in why we’re seeing inflation now and does it even..
Image by kalhh from Pixabay I’ve got inflation on my mind these days. Who doesn’t? The U.S. 10-year treasury yield is up nearly 3-fold in the past year, stoked by fears of inflation. Commodities too are rocketing higher for similar reasons (in part). However, I’m not convinced these trends will hold. To me, the deck..
Created by Wolfgang Beyer with the program Ultra Fractal 3. – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=321973 I’m currently reading Benoit Mandelbrot’s brilliant book The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence (TMM). In it, Mandelbrot makes a case for discarding the bell curve when modeling financial markets, the bedrock of modern financial..