Image by rawpixel from Pixabay There’s an ongoing debate about whether or not the U.S. is approaching a recession. As an investor, this question is of utmost importance. It is precisely at these times when fortunes can be made and lost. There’s no shortage of pundits with strong opinions in both the affirmative and negative..
Category: market commentary
Image by a_roesler from Pixabay … cropped Hello, my name is Seth and I’m a recovering perma-bear. (Hi Seth.) It’s true that I used to think that doom was inevitably just another quarter or two away. I was hyper-aware of the business cycle and the encroachment of government into the free markets. Thus, I concluded..
Image by Csaba Nagy from Pixabay The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act. Neither lowering interest rates to zero (and less) nor endless amounts of Quantitative Easing (QE) appear to make any difference. This, we’re told, is..
Image by bobbyrusso sourced from pixabay I joined Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle for a wide-ranging conversation covering all things macro. Be sure to stick around for the extended interview where we discussed some truly controversial subjects like reflexivity, inflation, the Eurodollar system, bank bailouts, and more. It was a lot..
“Don’t Fight The Fed”! This was arguably the most successful investment strategy over the past ten years. There was also no easier way to tarnish one’s reputation and career than to ignore this profitable slogan, as many respectable money managers learned. However, given my assessment of the economic landscape and understanding of the bank’s inner..
Image by Gerd Altmann sourced from pixabay Banking’s History Reveals An Impossible Decision Market participants ascribed a lot of importance to the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Many expected (and even plead) the committee to take a dovish stance. When the Federal Reserve (Fed) disappointed, markets continued to liquidate. Did the..
Image by Steve Buissinne sourced from pixabay There was a period of time when I was obsessed with home improvement shows. I’d watch almost anything on the subject: Backyard makeovers, kitchen remodels, gut renovations, you name it. It’s fascinating to see what a skilled craftsman can do with the proper tools. In fact, if there’s..
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The Integrating Investor estimates I recently contributed a guest post to Daniel Lacalle’s website. In it, I discuss the significance of this chart which is my attempt to apply a risk management framework to sovereign bond investing. You can find the article in its entirety here.
Image by Arek Socha sourced from pixabay It’s no secret that emerging markets (EM) are in a bit of a rough patch. While the unfortunate events in Turkey garnered most of the attention initially, nearly anything related to EM has slid in value. What exactly is going on here? Is this just another acute crisis..
If you’ve consumed any financial media lately, you’re likely well aware that the yield curve has been flattening. Since roughly 2014, the yield differential between the 10 year U.S. Treasury bond and any number of short-maturity ones has been compressing (the 2 year is most commonly used). Why this has much of the investment community..