Tag: monetary policy

No, Fed: Supply Construction, Not Demand Destruction

Image by bridgesward from Pixabay Everyone loves to dunk on the Federal Reserve (Fed). To many, the setters of U.S. monetary policy never get it right. Its stable of Ph.D. economists are always too late, or too slow, or too early, or too fast. Shockingly, many have built prominent careers in peddling this viewpoint. Yet,..

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Money’s Many And Problematic Definitions

Image by PDPics from Pixabay There’s no escaping the Federal Reserve (Fed) when it comes to investing these days. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) showed how the movement of money through the financial system can impact markets and mainstreamed these previously obscure discussions. As a result, flexing your financial system “plumbing” expertise is now fashionable…

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Inflation: Why Now And Will Bondholders Care?

Image by StockSnap from Pixabay As I sat down to write this month’s article, just one topic came to mind: inflation. Readers know that I just wrote on this theme. Yet, it remains topical and I have more to exploring to do. I’m specifically interested in why we’re seeing inflation now and does it even..

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Inflation Is Shortages And Thankfully Transitory

Image by kalhh from Pixabay I’ve got inflation on my mind these days. Who doesn’t? The U.S. 10-year treasury yield is up nearly 3-fold in the past year, stoked by fears of inflation. Commodities too are rocketing higher for similar reasons (in part). However, I’m not convinced these trends will hold. To me, the deck..

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How I Process Ideas Into Investments

Image by MustangJoe from Pixabay Investing is incredibly hard. Mapping observations to security price movements is complex to say the least. Often, the relationships governing these moves are unknown. Yet, this is the investor’s task. I’ve used this blog as a tool for exploring some of these connections. It’s been incredibly rewarding. Not only has..

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Podcast Interview With Lance Roberts

Image by Rui Russo from Pixabay I rejoined Lance Roberts on the Real Investment Show. We had a wide-ranging conversation exploring how fear may be impacting investment markets. It was originally recorded on December 17, 2019. You can watch our conversation below, on YouTube here, or listen to the audio here. If you enjoyed this..

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Why Are We So Scared

Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay I always find this time of year to be self-reflective. Year-end provides a natural point for critiquing past performance and fitting it into a broader investing context. These holidays in particular have a way of foisting this perspective upon me, and with deep meaning. As a parent of two young..

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The Opportunity Of Misplaced Inflation

Image by Csaba Nagy from Pixabay The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act. Neither lowering interest rates to zero (and less) nor endless amounts of Quantitative Easing (QE) appear to make any difference. This, we’re told, is..

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Podcast Interview With The Market Huddle

Image by bobbyrusso sourced from pixabay I joined Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle for a wide-ranging conversation covering all things macro. Be sure to stick around for the extended interview where we discussed some truly controversial subjects like reflexivity, inflation, the Eurodollar system, bank bailouts, and more. It was a lot..

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To Fight The Fed Or Not

“Don’t Fight The Fed”! This was arguably the most successful investment strategy over the past ten years. There was also no easier way to tarnish one’s reputation and career than to ignore this profitable slogan, as many respectable money managers learned. However, given my assessment of the economic landscape and understanding of the bank’s inner..

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