Image by Thomas Malyska from Pixabay Investment volatility remained elevated this year. One can point to any number of culprits. My preferred cause has been interest rate volatility. I’ve been cautious as the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its benchmark rate. However, a popular risk indicator has recently been sending a mixed message. The yield curve..
Tag: interest rates
Image by 14995841 from Pixabay Note from the author: I use the terms stability and instability throughout this article. However, resiliency and fragility, respectively, more accurately describe the phenomena that I’m describing. Centralization creates fragility and decentralization creates resiliency. Please note this as you read the article below which I left in its original form…
Image by linsenfutter2016 from Pixabay So much for returning to normal. I had hoped that easing COVID restrictions would supercharge economic growth this year. Many affected industries and markets were rebuilding and reopening to a backlog of robust demand. Sure, markets had issues to grapple with: inflation, changing central bank policies, and the return of..
Image by QuakerGirl22 from Pixabay Catching inflection points is the holy grail of trading. It’s what makes investing lore. From shorting the 2005 housing boom or skyrocketing technology stocks in 2000, to classic value investing, taking contrarian positions can create large profits and legendary reputations. While seductive, it’s a difficult way to trade over the..
Image by Csaba Nagy from Pixabay The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act. Neither lowering interest rates to zero (and less) nor endless amounts of Quantitative Easing (QE) appear to make any difference. This, we’re told, is..
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The Integrating Investor estimates I recently contributed a guest post to Daniel Lacalle’s website. In it, I discuss the significance of this chart which is my attempt to apply a risk management framework to sovereign bond investing. You can find the article in its entirety here.