Image by kalhh from Pixabay I’ve got inflation on my mind these days. Who doesn’t? The U.S. 10-year treasury yield is up nearly 3-fold in the past year, stoked by fears of inflation. Commodities too are rocketing higher for similar reasons (in part). However, I’m not convinced these trends will hold. To me, the deck..
Image by MustangJoe from Pixabay Investing is incredibly hard. Mapping observations to security price movements is complex to say the least. Often, the relationships governing these moves are unknown. Yet, this is the investor’s task. I’ve used this blog as a tool for exploring some of these connections. It’s been incredibly rewarding. Not only has..
Image by Rui Russo from Pixabay I rejoined Lance Roberts on the Real Investment Show. We had a wide-ranging conversation exploring how fear may be impacting investment markets. It was originally recorded on December 17, 2019. You can watch our conversation below, on YouTube here, or listen to the audio here. If you enjoyed this..
Image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay I always find this time of year to be self-reflective. Year-end provides a natural point for critiquing past performance and fitting it into a broader investing context. These holidays in particular have a way of foisting this perspective upon me, and with deep meaning. As a parent of two young..
Image by Csaba Nagy from Pixabay The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act. Neither lowering interest rates to zero (and less) nor endless amounts of Quantitative Easing (QE) appear to make any difference. This, we’re told, is..
Image by bobbyrusso sourced from pixabay I joined Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle for a wide-ranging conversation covering all things macro. Be sure to stick around for the extended interview where we discussed some truly controversial subjects like reflexivity, inflation, the Eurodollar system, bank bailouts, and more. It was a lot..
“Don’t Fight The Fed”! This was arguably the most successful investment strategy over the past ten years. There was also no easier way to tarnish one’s reputation and career than to ignore this profitable slogan, as many respectable money managers learned. However, given my assessment of the economic landscape and understanding of the bank’s inner..
Image by bobbyrusso sourced from pixabay I joined RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts on his show to discuss some unique views of central banks, capitalism, and modern monetary policy. Please note, that the opinions expressed are solely my own and do not reflect those of my current or any former employer. You can..
Image by QuinceMedia sourced from pixabay Powell’s Real Choice: His Reputation Or Esteem—Part 2 The following is Part 2 in a series discussing my belief that fiat currency regimes with central banks ultimately result in increasing amounts of leverage. Part 1 can be found here. I have to admit, I was about to “pull the..
Image by Gerd Altmann sourced from pixabay Banking’s History Reveals An Impossible Decision Market participants ascribed a lot of importance to the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Many expected (and even plead) the committee to take a dovish stance. When the Federal Reserve (Fed) disappointed, markets continued to liquidate. Did the..
