“Remember that Time is Money.” Benjamin Franklin, Advice to a Young Tradesman It’s unfortunate that such genius identifications as the above have long been forgotten by the economic community. First penned in 1748, Benjamin Franklin makes the connection between human effort—or rather the application of human effort towards productive work—and the effect/product, i.e. wealth. We..
Image by rawpixel from Pixabay There’s an ongoing debate about whether or not the U.S. is approaching a recession. As an investor, this question is of utmost importance. It is precisely at these times when fortunes can be made and lost. There’s no shortage of pundits with strong opinions in both the affirmative and negative..
Image by geralt from Pixabay We investors live in a world of doubt and uncertainty. It’s impossible to know how well a trade will work out at inception no matter how good the analysis or signal. I’ve taken countless rides on emotional rollercoasters over the years—oscillating between extreme nausea and terror when big trades went..
Image by a_roesler from Pixabay … cropped Hello, my name is Seth and I’m a recovering perma-bear. (Hi Seth.) It’s true that I used to think that doom was inevitably just another quarter or two away. I was hyper-aware of the business cycle and the encroachment of government into the free markets. Thus, I concluded..
Image by David Mark from Pixabay The volatility in the investment markets over the past few months has been truly astonishing. Prices are violently fluctuating and the range of traditional volatility indicators like the VIX have exploded. Just look at the daily moves of the popular U.S. stock market indices for example. While it’s generally..
Image by Csaba Nagy from Pixabay The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act. Neither lowering interest rates to zero (and less) nor endless amounts of Quantitative Easing (QE) appear to make any difference. This, we’re told, is..
Image by bobbyrusso sourced from pixabay I joined Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle for a wide-ranging conversation covering all things macro. Be sure to stick around for the extended interview where we discussed some truly controversial subjects like reflexivity, inflation, the Eurodollar system, bank bailouts, and more. It was a lot..
“Don’t Fight The Fed”! This was arguably the most successful investment strategy over the past ten years. There was also no easier way to tarnish one’s reputation and career than to ignore this profitable slogan, as many respectable money managers learned. However, given my assessment of the economic landscape and understanding of the bank’s inner..
Image by Thomas Müller from Pixabay George Soros is about as close to a household name as it gets for a hedge fund manager. He’s legendary for his billions, “breaking” the Bank of England, and is even an alleged mastermind of left-wing, political conspiracy theories. For me, though, Mr. Soros’s theory of reflexivity is his..
Image by RayMark sourced from pixabay Powell’s Real Choice: His Reputation Or Esteem—Part 3 The following is Part 3 in a series outlining my belief that central banks and fiat currency regimes ultimately lead to increasing amounts of leverage. Part 1 can be found here and Part 2 here. Over the past few months I..