Tag: yield curve

Today’s Yield Curve Steepening Is Not Different This Time, It’s Not The Same

Image by Thomas Malyska from Pixabay Investment volatility remained elevated this year. One can point to any number of culprits. My preferred cause has been interest rate volatility. I’ve been cautious as the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its benchmark rate. However, a popular risk indicator has recently been sending a mixed message. The yield curve..

Read more

Superforecasting A Bear Market

Image by rawpixel from Pixabay There’s an ongoing debate about whether or not the U.S. is approaching a recession. As an investor, this question is of utmost importance. It is precisely at these times when fortunes can be made and lost. There’s no shortage of pundits with strong opinions in both the affirmative and negative..

Read more

Recovering Perma-Bear At A Crossroad

Image by a_roesler from Pixabay … cropped Hello, my name is Seth and I’m a recovering perma-bear. (Hi Seth.) It’s true that I used to think that doom was inevitably just another quarter or two away. I was hyper-aware of the business cycle and the encroachment of government into the free markets. Thus, I concluded..

Read more

Reflexivity Here In The Yield Curve & Everywhere

Image by Thomas Müller from Pixabay George Soros is about as close to a household name as it gets for a hedge fund manager. He’s legendary for his billions, “breaking” the Bank of England, and is even an alleged mastermind of left-wing, political conspiracy theories. For me, though, Mr. Soros’s theory of reflexivity is his..

Read more

Playing For A Potential Yield Curve Inversion

If you’ve consumed any financial media lately, you’re likely well aware that the yield curve has been flattening. Since roughly 2014, the yield differential between the 10 year U.S. Treasury bond and any number of short-maturity ones has been compressing (the 2 year is most commonly used). Why this has much of the investment community..

Read more

Social media & sharing icons powered by UltimatelySocial